Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655274ad528192bd8f90ce80a066622ec1e3798cb4dd659cfeaae8be76e50700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 24c | 1,889$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.68 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,692$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 12c | 780.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 626.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 263.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 171$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 132.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 10c | 120.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 46c | 112.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 105.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 53c | 94.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 46c | 88.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 86.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed Yes | 45c | 84.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 83.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 82.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 81.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 74.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 49c | 73.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 67.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed Yes | 47c | 59.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 57c | 52.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 50c | 49.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 51c | 46.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 56c | 44.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 46c | 42.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 36.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 53c | 36.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 35.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…38bbbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 53c | 32.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 31.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 51c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…6ff5backed Yes | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 29.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 39c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…6f2dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 46c | 23.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 57c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 59c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 19.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.