NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e5b112d2a0a772447365ba287084b531d4bca142f64d9ad352e85305fa9609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 635.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 63c | 388$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 354.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 37c | 345.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 258.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 38c | 256.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 249.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 62c | 241$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 52c | 229.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 36c | 219.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ec7bbacked Under | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 37c | 159.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 127.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Over | 63c | 118.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…3728backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under | 48c | 89.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 52c | 76.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 61c | 66.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 65.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 71c | 47.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Over | 63c | 47.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Under | 38c | 40.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 62c | 38.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 50c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 44c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 51c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 72c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. Golden KnightsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.