NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63228199d11a34a458dfbb3403765a6ef09cf31a4a35ed826eb3d9bcb9f59c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Golden Knights, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Oilers | 67c | 1,308$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.11 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights | 33c | 980.98$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.72 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights | 33c | 896.28$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.71 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Golden Knights | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers | 65c | 280.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Oilers | 68c | 270.76$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Oilers | 65c | 249.76$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Golden Knights | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Oilers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…4ef5backed Oilers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 65c | 140.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Golden Knights | 33c | 122.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Oilers | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Oilers | 65c | 103.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Golden Knights | 35c | 99.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Golden Knights | 32c | 88.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Oilers | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Oilers | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Golden Knights | 35c | 66.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 17c | 66.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Oilers | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Oilers | 68c | 51.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Golden Knights | 32c | 47.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden Knights | 33c | 37.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Oilers | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Oilers | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Oilers | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Oilers | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oilers | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Oilers | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Oilers | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. Golden KnightsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.