Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1f7f5e45f1605011156ac7cdf669244e27f6eae67a2f16033b42739aa22c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 1,513$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.63 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 638.75$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 532.58$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 216.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 66c | 205$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 170.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 136.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 35c | 136.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 20c | 119.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed Yes | 40c | 118.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 97.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 93.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 59c | 85.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 84.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 60c | 77.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 76.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 68.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…4176backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 38c | 59.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 20c | 56.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 52c | 55.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 51.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 48.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 47.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 47.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 36c | 42.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 40.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 39.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 39.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 39.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 76c | 34.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 33.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 30.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 29.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 29.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 67c | 29.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 21.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 65c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.