Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a6abec08e60d98438b5cdfe55a1a0ea28b8f320774d211c9650dd83ab9967a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 36c | 1,831$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.95 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 645.33$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 494.98$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 54c | 440.76$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 409.63$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 401.33$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 78c | 380.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 283.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 229.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 64c | 199.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 181.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 172.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 149.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 149.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 143.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 137.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 135.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 121.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 14c | 103.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 94.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 90.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 82.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 72.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 67.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 61c | 64.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…24f0backed Yes | 38c | 59.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 73c | 58.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 55.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 41c | 53.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…df8dbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 45.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 41.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 47c | 37.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 35.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 67c | 30.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…8e5ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 29.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 48c | 27.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 61c | 25.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 63c | 21.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 66c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…2157backed Yes | 69c | 14.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.