Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-07-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a211e52b98d95ddff11995f5733c2813c886c5c663485ab8cfa608bf0b64c5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 8,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 16c | 6,275$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.51 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 14c | 4,732$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.14 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 17c | 3,406$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.91 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 1c | 2,349$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,300$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.03 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 16c | 2,001$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 7c | 1,675$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 80c | 1,276$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 5c | 791.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 26c | 735.33$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 19c | 528.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 366.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 16c | 358.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 14c | 311.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 5c | 233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked No | 79c | 212.89$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 22c | 191$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 20c | 184.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 154.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Yes | 14c | 116.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 73c | 81.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…616dbacked Yes | 17c | 80.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 26c | 76.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 17c | 75.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 74.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 77c | 56.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed No | 51c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 78c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-07-17?this page
- Will Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.