Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a28e9eb836ec7cf09e0914b1610c27ea3d664ff01af1afbf85be319de419688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 4,412$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.18 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 24c | 1,777$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.38 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 27c | 1,122$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,027$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,017$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.66 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 15c | 873.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 25c | 800.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 527.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 515.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 447$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 381.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 27c | 375.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 71c | 322.05$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 229.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 144$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 17c | 120.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 25c | 117.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed Yes | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 93.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 26c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 29c | 62.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 80c | 59.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…921cbacked No | 77c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.