Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa0038e7b5e0894a051ccfd85c812cf42ad0a02bec75f2c6f7ebc1a2efe4122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 34c | 23,309$8,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,037.88 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 8,953$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.51 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 34c | 8,788$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,987.92 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 65c | 6,631$4,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.42 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 6,244$4,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.55 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed No | 66c | 6,038$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,511$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.68 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 4,030$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.76 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 2,321$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 25c | 1,909$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 1,820$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.89 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed No | 65c | 1,582$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,481$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 851.16$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.39 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 65c | 808$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 33c | 449.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 35c | 428.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked No | 70c | 328.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 66c | 289.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 66c | 282$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 234.46$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…a083backed No | 65c | 221.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 71c | 212.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked No | 65c | 200.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 35c | 196.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 35c | 167.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…a36dbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 138$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 14c | 136.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 91.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 35c | 76.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed No | 68c | 58.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 21c | 55.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…8580backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 63c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…9339backed Yes | 34c | 41.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed No | 68c | 39.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 35c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…6ce6backed No | 67c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed No | 68c | 32.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…2a6fbacked Yes | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…9a4fbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 71c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…c78ebacked No | 68c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…5e33backed No | 68c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…c51fbacked No | 68c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed No | 67c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.