Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4587afa051fe64a0fc0afa0d990a8274b0bf085d2d0fa9f9d1693ce4e15078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wuhan San Zhen FCof Shanghai Shenhua FC, Wuhan San Zhen FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 78c | 706.01$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 22c | 638.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 73c | 365.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 26c | 105.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 79c | 91.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 77c | 79.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 59 | 76.3%45 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 22c | 74.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 22c | 46.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Wuhan San Zhen FC | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 78c | 35.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 80c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Wuhan San Zhen FC won
- Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.