Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x442db129080401b7babfada5652998217353fd1f172cfa5acc22a1457f0cc5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 21c | 4,868$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 4,184$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.45 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f1…1395backed Over | 68c | 1,109$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 37c | 999.93$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.97 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 910.74$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.82 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 76c | 523.74$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 66c | 497$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 228.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 224.38$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 80c | 196.93$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 32c | 176.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 158.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 25c | 154.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 33c | 119.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…20b0backed Over | 67c | 111.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…ad0ebacked Under | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 97.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 68c | 61.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 58.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 63c | 54.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…55a5backed Over | 68c | 43.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 63c | 38.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 68c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 68c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 77c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 68c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Wuhan San Zhen FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Wuhan San Zhen FC won
- Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.