MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4ad02169bbfb213805a958d3c9c2330296588895266591fd1b9c89c2f64511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 23c | 2,362$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.69 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 2,334$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.24 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 390.27$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,209 | 29%351 W · 858 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 67c | 174.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 61c | 111$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 2,315 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,099 L | +25.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 64c | 107.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 24c | 91.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 42c | 83.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 47c | 80.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 48c | 48.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 535 | 38.7%207 W · 328 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 71c | 43.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 44c | 41.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 44c | 41.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 38.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 32.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 40c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.