MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a37c7f00df765e6e0c6c6d650f46e4a1fa95b5a5ce244f67050f0a8fa655266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 3,434$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.62 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 3,157$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.87 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 7c | 1,800$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 1,665$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 747.75$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 733.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 4c | 654$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 449.06$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 309.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 196$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 195.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 183.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 175.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 128.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 116.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…e235backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 69.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 68.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 31.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 29.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 23.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 18.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.