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Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open, Qualification: Arthur Gea vs Vilius Gaubas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vilius Gaubasof Arthur Gea, Vilius Gaubas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14bc…3904backed Arthur Gea0c28,202$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23148.4%15 W · 16 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+41.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arthur Gea19c7,165$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.97,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arthur Gea20c3,846$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.882,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa23…7afabacked Arthur Gea34c2,526$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.395251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Arthur Gea46c2,282$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.8815862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Arthur Gea46c2,015$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.791,28656.8%731 W · 555 L-16.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7a…7ce9backed Arthur Gea7c1,983$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vilius Gaubas54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46010646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Vilius Gaubas56c993.54$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6662645.4%284 W · 342 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arthur Gea11c727.78$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.589,16136.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L-202.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Arthur Gea44c699.94$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.971,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Arthur Gea44c657.53$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.931,13242.8%485 W · 647 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Vilius Gaubas56c535.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.621,92755.4%1,068 W · 859 L-43.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Arthur Gea45c491.61$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2310641.5%44 W · 62 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Vilius Gaubas56c486.8$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1958753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Arthur Gea20c458.91$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.732,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab82…a0dcbacked Vilius Gaubas54c453.03$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Vilius Gaubas54c400.26$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.083,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Vilius Gaubas55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18012439.5%49 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Vilius Gaubas56c398.71$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9721244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4d…51f7backed Arthur Gea45c395.4$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…51f9backed Vilius Gaubas56c382.49$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Vilius Gaubas66c366.8$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.712,44250.9%1,243 W · 1,199 L+83.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc046…f138backed Vilius Gaubas80c345.36$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.074584.4%38 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa164…7d86backed Vilius Gaubas57c338.57$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6822248.2%107 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Arthur Gea19c250.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5744727.3%122 W · 325 L-1.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Arthur Gea9c218.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8136032.5%117 W · 243 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Arthur Gea45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.748344.5%215 W · 268 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x956d…b750backed Arthur Gea46c210.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7610757.9%62 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Vilius Gaubas55c207.92$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5729241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Arthur Gea43c205.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.117,20149.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L+114.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Vilius Gaubas56c201.67$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7424450.8%124 W · 120 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Vilius Gaubas77c198.42$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.375,45556.4%3,074 W · 2,381 L+234.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bdf…7c07backed Vilius Gaubas56c194.72$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.682850%14 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Vilius Gaubas56c173.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.519052.6%100 W · 90 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Vilius Gaubas58c167.52$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0360661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Vilius Gaubas54c165$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.94,99238.6%1,927 W · 3,065 L-19.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Arthur Gea8c141.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57bf…0169backed Vilius Gaubas56c139.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.25164.7%33 W · 18 L+7.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Arthur Gea43c136.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8958734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Vilius Gaubas74c133.26$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.822,15354.1%1,165 W · 988 L-2.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arthur Gea25c127.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452,85947.1%1,348 W · 1,511 L+37.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3274…4493backed Arthur Gea17c111.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Arthur Gea45c111.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1738754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Arthur Gea45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3581933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2054…148fbacked Arthur Gea45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.35650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Vilius Gaubas56c101.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.861,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa1…dc77backed Arthur Gea19c100.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0312856.3%72 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Arthur Gea43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d12…4070backed Vilius Gaubas55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9910254.9%56 W · 46 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Arthur Gea20c98.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Arthur Gea19c98.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.795050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Arthur Gea24c90.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.124153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Vilius Gaubas66c90.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1556754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Vilius Gaubas56c87.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.72,05959.5%1,226 W · 833 L-0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Vilius Gaubas73c87.82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.956,86748.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L+61.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Arthur Gea12c87.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5373549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Vilius Gaubas56c86.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2554450.6%275 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a01…c0f7backed Arthur Gea23c83.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.316457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Arthur Gea44c82.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.432,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Arthur Gea16c80.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1322113.6%30 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eaf…507bbacked Vilius Gaubas56c80.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2318133.1%60 W · 121 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Arthur Gea21c77.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.184,78449.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L+177.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2fe…09c9backed Vilius Gaubas57c75.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.422049.5%109 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Arthur Gea45c75.21$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8535344.8%158 W · 195 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Arthur Gea25c63.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7920331%63 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Arthur Gea44c63.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7397745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b3…f8c1backed Arthur Gea20c60.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.215641.7%65 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Arthur Gea43c53.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.973,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Vilius Gaubas66c53.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1957267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2714…2a5dbacked Vilius Gaubas56c52.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Vilius Gaubas56c52.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.952,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Vilius Gaubas66c46.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.729,40644.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L-245.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a1…3a92backed Arthur Gea44c43.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.333060%18 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Arthur Gea45c42.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3418258.8%107 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Arthur Gea25c42.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4174346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Vilius Gaubas66c40.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.982,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b38…a036backed Vilius Gaubas56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611949.6%59 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f4d…3e70backed Arthur Gea45c39.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.796147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32dc…c109backed Vilius Gaubas80c39.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94372.1%31 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Arthur Gea35c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9543558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Arthur Gea37c35.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.191,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf77c…61cabacked Vilius Gaubas55c35.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9211846.6%55 W · 63 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Arthur Gea43c35.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0156817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Vilius Gaubas56c35.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4730850%154 W · 154 L-15.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d9…3624backed Vilius Gaubas56c34.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.39153.8%49 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b9…9b4abacked Arthur Gea34c31.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.763420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Vilius Gaubas56c31.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7752457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x093b…4e14backed Vilius Gaubas56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.217848.9%87 W · 91 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x877c…e669backed Vilius Gaubas53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7522963.3%145 W · 84 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc475…89e5backed Vilius Gaubas79c23.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Vilius Gaubas53c23.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0866452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Vilius Gaubas62c23.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.791,07357.4%616 W · 457 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd074…5a54backed Vilius Gaubas69c20.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.444971.4%35 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Vilius Gaubas57c20.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.677553.3%40 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Vilius Gaubas80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.