Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a9342d77682f02352a460885124f0e8b7fe86e3e51a9f5f78a2f98d35224c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 5,278$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.26 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 2,647$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.61 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 51c | 1,960$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.4 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,689$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.6 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 51c | 1,584$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.53 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,376$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.77 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 43c | 1,042$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.71 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 509$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.95 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 42c | 416.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.56 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 61c | 399.93$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 371.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 330$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Under | 51c | 151.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 126.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Over | 62c | 125.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 66cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Under | 48c | 97.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Under | 49c | 95.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…82e7backed Over | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Under | 45c | 64.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Under | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Under | 47c | 52.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 52c | 46.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 67c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 51c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Over | 52c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.