Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa0d7f52726840a2936765c947417147cd98b1d7d3e3fe7bbc642f52fec3b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 7c | 305.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.62 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 77c | 156.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 40c | 120.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 113.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 104.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 72c | 102.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 102.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 92.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 47c | 86.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 53c | 83.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 25c | 82.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 65.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 57c | 59.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 58.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 40.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 27.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 73c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 41c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 59c | 24.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 70c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 64c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 19.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 71c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on April 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.