Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aac2c25f7b8a5a82686a3462e6cd8834e340a3cce1257e62a98a8b44f4a3198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1f…7392backed No | 79c | 446.5$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 25c | 345.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 52c | 213.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 170.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 38c | 161.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 136.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 35c | 127.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 113.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 81.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 63c | 79.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 28c | 70.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 67.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 65.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 64.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 59.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 27c | 57.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 57.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 37c | 54.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 51.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 35c | 47.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 45.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…1997backed Yes | 25c | 42.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked No | 50c | 35.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 32c | 35.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 34.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 48c | 23.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 64c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…ce48backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.