MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab2eb47e2a6b75c0fcb62640b1e62caca8066f09065bca6d040976f4691fcd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 7,658$5,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 7,110$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 4,007$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,338$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,211$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.32 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,051$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 751.19$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 700.81$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 606$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 606$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 560$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 458.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 452.96$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 412.77$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 349.89$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 322$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 255.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Colorado Rockies | 73c | 224$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 206$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Colorado Rockies | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 75.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 73.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 56.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 56.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 38.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.