MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ea4870777806b9dce716b7009bc3bde4125027687b1f3a542dda5d6e46999d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 5,502$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.55 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 4,646$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 77c | 2,435$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.01 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 2,283$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.19 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 29c | 1,355$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.13 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 71c | 700.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 490.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 71c | 362.22$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 256.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…cbe4backed Under | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Under | 15c | 206.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 333 | 28.2%94 W · 239 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 16c | 199.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 145.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 55c | 132$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 71c | 117$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Under | 31c | 115.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked Under | 44c | 112.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 70c | 79.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…5723backed Under | 23c | 66.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 23c | 61.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 30c | 51.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 49.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 63c | 35.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 55c | 29.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 22.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 70c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.