MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765150afc92160a389d6973576b837554a72bc071ca230b123c0d5f4d8a90309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x531b…6022backed Under | 44c | 36,811$16,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,640.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 25,849$14,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,474.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 3,934$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 78c | 3,774$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.19 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 22c | 3,769$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.09 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 2,038$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.84 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 2,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 1,967$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Under | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 1,501$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 1,440$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 43c | 1,111$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.25 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 905$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 665.67$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 30c | 395.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 57c | 255$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…d989backed Under | 43c | 196.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 79c | 170.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 129.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 118.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 18c | 57.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 44c | 54.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 36c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 54c | 50.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 45c | 50.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Over | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Over | 44c | 41.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 64c | 39.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 30.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 28.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 42c | 24.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.