MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad46235c58576678f49932d2da4dd972b5fa86b1320b2d925d2a3c736978531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Athletics | 41c | 59,311$24,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,806.86 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 59c | 14,100$8,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,281 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 58c | 11,912$6,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,908.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Royals | 59c | 6,320$3,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.95 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 59c | 5,559$3,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,268.56 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Royals | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Royals | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.47 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 52c | 3,110$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.93 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Royals | 59c | 2,410$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.9 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Royals | 29c | 2,076$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.02 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royals | 58c | 2,051$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.02 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Athletics | 59c | 2,033$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.32 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Royals | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Royals | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.98 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 56c | 1,959$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Royals | 58c | 1,678$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.16 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Royals | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 328 | 52.4%172 W · 156 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…754fbacked Royals | 5c | 1,664$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…e520backed Athletics | 42c | 1,643$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.94 | 279 | 53.4%149 W · 130 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Royals | 58c | 1,501$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.58 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Athletics | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.8 | 1,012 | 51.2%518 W · 494 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Royals | 4c | 932.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59de…de22backed Royals | 58c | 675.3$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.52 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Royals | 40c | 660.87$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Royals | 59c | 597$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.23 | 268 | 47.4%127 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals | 27c | 546.15$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.46 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Royals | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 38c | 475.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Royals | 58c | 474.74$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Royals | 59c | 452.39$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Royals | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Royals | 59c | 355$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.45 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Royals | 64c | 335.93$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Athletics | 36c | 297.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Athletics | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Royals | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Athletics | 41c | 244.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Athletics | 41c | 244.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.53 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Athletics | 40c | 220$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Royals | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Athletics | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Royals | 59c | 172.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0fe8backed Royals | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Athletics | 42c | 166.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Royals | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Athletics | 40c | 122.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…1f2cbacked Athletics | 42c | 115.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 42c | 113.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 58c | 107.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Royals | 59c | 100.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Athletics | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Athletics | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Royals | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb7…ae2abacked Royals | 59c | 89.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…b51ebacked Royals | 59c | 83.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…2ba2backed Athletics | 42c | 77.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Royals | 59c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals | 58c | 61.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Royals | 60c | 60.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Athletics | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 59c | 59.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Royals | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…542fbacked Royals | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Royals | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Athletics | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Royals | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Athletics | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 508 | 43.3%220 W · 288 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Royals | 44c | 35.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Royals | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,396 | 55.2%770 W · 626 L | -28.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Royals | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 195 | 66.2%129 W · 66 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d3…1b5cbacked Royals | 59c | 25.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…7a0bbacked Royals | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Athletics | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Royals | 59c | 24.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 259 | 52.5%136 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…5eb3backed Royals | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.