MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad83c52e58b6c1146fcd6166c4d461d0915b9b0af74137509b9274d213e46bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 1,096$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 618$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 615.5$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…3820backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 328.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 287.36$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 283.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 189.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 107.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 97.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 71.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 37.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.