MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd3dbb046a16a303cef4fae8fa2fbdf101bb931ac0cc6544f908ce4508f7c26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 64,365$34,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,756.84 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 59,158$27,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,952.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 8,500$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 6,508$3,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,460.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 4,386$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 3,626$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 3,624$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.54 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 1,587$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.98 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,116$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.4 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 1,109$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.65 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 30c | 990$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 806$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 680.97$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 46c | 652.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 47c | 635.76$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.01 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 595$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 46c | 560$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 445.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 56c | 402$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 45c | 300.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 298.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 296$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 44c | 276$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 271$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Under | 56c | 265.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 46c | 232.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 64c | 206.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 54c | 178.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 168.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618a…c8ebbacked Under | 54c | 158.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 122.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 118$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 45c | 103.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…34cabacked Under | 54c | 100.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 95.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 88.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 55c | 67.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…a145backed Over | 46c | 58.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 51.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 47.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 45.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Under | 54c | 45.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d50…26d1backed Under | 56c | 39.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 55c | 37.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…8cdbbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 38c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 47c | 27.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 55c | 24.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 55c | 19.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 54c | 18.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.