MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706093a798fdee4388ec7a96c1e7ffca880a279c2e8a3bfc14c8e68d7c321793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 5,540$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 4,881$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 443.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 276$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 254.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 159.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 130.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 111.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 89.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 82.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 55.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 51.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 49.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 45.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 30.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.