Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Sonego vs. Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af19736d2b9be2b6c44d51f0befe2d66ac65129d7537cfab5042146a3c5328b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Sonego, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Sonego | 15c | 9,398$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.3 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…fab3backed Sonego | 40c | 6,896$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Sonego | 12c | 5,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Zverev | 69c | 3,803$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.68 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sonego | 11c | 3,442$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.04 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sonego | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Sonego | 13c | 2,987$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sonego | 31c | 2,843$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.94 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Sonego | 24c | 2,205$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.84 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Sonego | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sonego | 11c | 1,841$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.51 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Zverev | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Sonego | 28c | 1,609$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.67 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Zverev | 62c | 1,400$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.7 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sonego | 24c | 1,094$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.35 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Sonego | 44c | 1,023$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.15 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Sonego | 21c | 934.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Sonego | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Sonego | 26c | 748$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Sonego | 44c | 664.06$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Sonego | 19c | 590.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Sonego | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Sonego | 33c | 570$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sonego | 22c | 496.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zverev | 65c | 397.59$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Sonego | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Zverev | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Sonego | 17c | 300.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Sonego | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Sonego | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Zverev | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Zverev | 61c | 193.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Sonego | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…2248backed Zverev | 68c | 163.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Sonego | 25c | 145.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…459fbacked Sonego | 13c | 142.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +261.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Sonego | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Zverev | 76c | 105.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Sonego | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonego | 22c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Sonego | 14c | 84.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Zverev | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Zverev | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Zverev | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Zverev | 74c | 28.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.