NBA · resolved market
Will Ja Morant be traded in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afdc2e579e740922f1b4253cf338b752eed3cc65e94f573d87ba08df4367227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 20c | 773.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…160dbacked Yes | 16c | 607.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 571.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…0139backed Yes | 13c | 351.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f6…099ebacked Yes | 16c | 308.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 14c | 218$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…eea5backed Yes | 15c | 195.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 14c | 171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 15c | 164.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 19c | 163.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…7275backed Yes | 13c | 159.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Yes | 17c | 150.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 80c | 147$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 124.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…3aa4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…ddd0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 15c | 91.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654c…e21dbacked Yes | 18c | 86.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…52ddbacked Yes | 32c | 63.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.