TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,103,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,106,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,103,397 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes14c213,477$29,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,653.8680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No77c90,809$69,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,035.074156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Yes19c38,705$7,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,234.44650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ad…1c73backed No61c13,000$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes12c11,928$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.867821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes29c11,491$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.2310625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No78c10,904$8,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.8424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes12c10,705$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.05224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x882f…322dbacked No71c9,566$6,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+113.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf183…c3bfbacked Yes19c8,873$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66a…bb25backed Yes27c8,116$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes28c7,590$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.592020%4 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes17c7,501$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.176033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No69c6,735$4,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.973565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3936…8e4ebacked Yes31c6,463$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadcd…7295backed Yes39c5,806$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes16c5,023$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe3…9680backed No50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a5…2053backed Yes50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5071…e1a1backed Yes17c4,250$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No68c4,012$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.952759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3021…ff8cbacked No75c3,597$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+82.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7694…954fbacked No46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8901100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62b8…fbb0backed Yes54c3,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c3,435$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.0439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes8c3,089$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.829413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes17c3,026$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.997736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes7c2,999$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.578927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes21c2,730$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.8660%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No78c2,542$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.733756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes19c2,142$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.883212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed Yes25c1,842$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes10c1,827$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.65200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c1,625$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…19d9backed No70c1,619$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x956c…fdb8backed No77c1,585$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.0713100%13 W · 0 L+5.1wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes22c1,415$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.96336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes17c1,384$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.34936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked No77c1,350$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5a…2d96backed Yes23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-71.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed No75c1,162$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c1,107$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5210812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes33c1,070$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No72c1,059$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.054953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0129…53cebacked Yes19c1,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d6…af98backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6981…0f1bbacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes25c999.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81f3…1043backed Yes24c988.53$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.46100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes28c926.14$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.581520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26aa…6574backed Yes40c879.35$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb411…8cd6backed Yes32c860.47$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…b641backed Yes16c840.76$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes18c835.82$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.928337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes15c799.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1198615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes10c769.87$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked No26c768$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes23c709.21$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked Yes15c666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+400.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c9…74c8backed Yes33c651.06$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No75c647.18$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8411647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes5c631.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1183…cb21backed Yes33c617.07$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes25c602.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.581650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x718b…4c69backed Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0437…3647backed Yes36c581.59$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes5c579.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.975541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ad…5647backed Yes18c570.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0234…446bbacked Yes34c570.45$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b57…37aabacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd82…eaeabacked Yes34c543.03$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc015…bdf8backed No73c520.69$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b1…c354backed Yes67c518.64$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc85…8092backed Yes34c506.84$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37cd…5b44backed Yes16c501.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c5c…a8f1backed No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…6780backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a15…1573backed No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes33c499.33$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad6…c088backed No79c494.98$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0481…0954backed Yes24c494.32$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No70c484.13$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.243683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcb3e…952cbacked Yes38c469.5$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4f…6310backed Yes22c455.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1711…7da5backed Yes41c454.56$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x377a…f5f7backed Yes41c437.59$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae9…904bbacked No71c422.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes38c414.7$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f2…30bfbacked Yes34c412.15$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7390…9160backed Yes23c411.51$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8d…ab7dbacked Yes25c394.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0b…661bbacked No79c386.69$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53df…c20bbacked Yes31c384.42$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a71…3c62backed No54c377.76$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.351080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x171e…6141backed Yes20c373.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes28c370$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…e7e5backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No55c350$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1581833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3afd…52c9backed Yes33c345.71$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.