Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b82e2ba89a9f27876508db28870dfc9437d8a88a7ec01b7c4a8ae8e9019584b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 393.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 280.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…d07cbacked Yes | 65c | 276.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 17c | 244.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 189.79$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 177.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 12c | 172.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 164.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 161.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 62c | 134.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 119.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 22c | 118.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 116.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 104.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 64c | 104.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 97.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 91.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 87.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 14c | 77.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 44c | 66.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 77c | 64.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 24c | 60.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 57.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 57.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 20c | 55.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 78c | 52.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 44.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 41.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 40.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 40.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 39.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 44c | 37.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 28.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Yes | 76c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 25.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 40c | 25.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 67c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 17.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 74c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.