Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2485fd3586b757711267889187816f65a905b0bec78a075100bddc1d3c009d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 46c | 425.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.18 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 368.31$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 329$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 53c | 278.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 221.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 54c | 204$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 199.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 26c | 195.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked No | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 161.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 159.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 149.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 28c | 146.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 48c | 141.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 103.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 96.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 44c | 94.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 81.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 45c | 79.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 49c | 75.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 53c | 73.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 61c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 62.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 47c | 56.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 48c | 56.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 46c | 54.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 52.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 52.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 51.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 47.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 39.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 52c | 37.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed No | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 49c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 38c | 30.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 42c | 24.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 55c | 23.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 22.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.