China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8984b1de69cf1eb54707de4cfd0455b3eed053c3db1e565b2f906d4fbf8247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 9,474$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…4386backed Yes | 3c | 3,644$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,537$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…b019backed Yes | 3c | 3,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,100$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,098$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…c620backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,664$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,532$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…3d5bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…1d19backed Yes | 11c | 1,378$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…a9d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,351$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 13c | 1,246$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked Yes | 2c | 1,242$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,161$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…732cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,064$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…6f1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…b52dbacked Yes | 6c | 999.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…e927backed Yes | 3c | 981.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…0283backed Yes | 3c | 954.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 6c | 844.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 10c | 729.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…f176backed Yes | 4c | 713$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…32b7backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 639.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…20b3backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…4389backed Yes | 9c | 577.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…60e6backed Yes | 4c | 519.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d4…05d1backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…da3cbacked Yes | 7c | 430$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7267…e8c4backed Yes | 9c | 395$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 7c | 390.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…4195backed Yes | 9c | 342.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…c9efbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 10c | 298.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…4c4cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 9c | 229.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…f946backed Yes | 9c | 212.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…b683backed Yes | 9c | 196.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 7c | 176.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 10c | 171.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…aacfbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10be…58c7backed Yes | 8c | 123.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3276…dd01backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.