CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b89e9048740abe594571ef8874fe0ed1362af386500c7d9497a5086f05c451e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zomblersof Zomblers, regain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Zomblers | 34c | 3,485$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.36 | 853 | 58.3%497 W · 356 L | +60.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed regain | 66c | 1,141$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.38 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Zomblers | 35c | 1,140$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.42 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Zomblers | 59c | 982.81$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.99 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked regain | 66c | 826.78$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.64 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed regain | 43c | 777.62$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.24 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Zomblers | 51c | 773.33$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.53 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Zomblers | 56c | 620.52$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.14 | 1,178 | 54.5%642 W · 536 L | -36.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked regain | 52c | 598.7$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.25 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Zomblers | 45c | 542.1$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.41 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed regain | 57c | 505.06$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 1,594 | 29.7%473 W · 1,121 L | -88.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Zomblers | 61c | 474.01$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed regain | 66c | 465.64$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.51 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked regain | 58c | 417.2$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed regain | 66c | 333.32$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed regain | 65c | 301.66$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed regain | 66c | 299.22$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed regain | 65c | 299.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 239 | 40.2%96 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed regain | 65c | 292.15$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed regain | 61c | 286.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed regain | 66c | 282.33$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed regain | 40c | 279.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed regain | 38c | 267.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Zomblers | 35c | 260.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 652 | 54.3%354 W · 298 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…d8dbbacked Zomblers | 39c | 248.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked regain | 45c | 230.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…ab95backed regain | 66c | 204.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.77 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65d…1933backed regain | 66c | 199.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Zomblers | 69c | 196.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Zomblers | 36c | 193.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 330 | 44.5%147 W · 183 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed regain | 30c | 190.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked regain | 53c | 182.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Zomblers | 60c | 174.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Zomblers | 38c | 166.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Zomblers | 44c | 156.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked regain | 43c | 153.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…55adbacked regain | 64c | 153.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…d1a1backed regain | 65c | 150.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…32aebacked regain | 43c | 149.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e12…ffe8backed Zomblers | 71c | 143.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Zomblers | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Zomblers | 57c | 114.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb927…4f7ebacked Zomblers | 65c | 102.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Zomblers | 62c | 89.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed regain | 60c | 86.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 310 | 51.3%159 W · 151 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed regain | 47c | 86.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Zomblers | 74c | 86.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed regain | 43c | 81.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed regain | 62c | 79.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed regain | 43c | 79.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked regain | 65c | 75.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 335 | 57.3%192 W · 143 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…fda1backed regain | 41c | 70.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 411 | 47.7%196 W · 215 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed regain | 21c | 66.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Zomblers | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed regain | 53c | 65.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked Zomblers | 55c | 60.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed regain | 45c | 59.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed regain | 44c | 58.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Zomblers | 65c | 54.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed regain | 60c | 54.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed regain | 36c | 53.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Zomblers | 45c | 52.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked regain | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Zomblers | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…2602backed regain | 65c | 47.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Zomblers | 35c | 42.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 206 | 46.6%96 W · 110 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked regain | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed regain | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…7820backed Zomblers | 33c | 35.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…da1fbacked regain | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked regain | 61c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…d488backed regain | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…62fbbacked Zomblers | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed regain | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,652 | 52.9%874 W · 778 L | +60.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7588…0aa0backed regain | 63c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…fbebbacked regain | 65c | 21.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed regain | 51c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked regain | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked regain | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Zomblers | 75c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 382 | 59.7%228 W · 154 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain - Map 1 WinnerZomblers won
- Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain - Map 2 Winnerregain won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.