La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8d96a80629de2c50c8de15b0b6c803794e60ddaff475a2daabc8355498a9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 29c | 1,606$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.69 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 71c | 871.12$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.49 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 609.37$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 29c | 482.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 57c | 367.87$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 28c | 182.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…db81backed Yes | 29c | 164.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…85d4backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 28c | 109.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…3443backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…a401backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…d0f2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ed…27ddbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.