Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b901b7f27c5d0ee4a8bdc6a32642e655e0a9f0baf6fbb06e4f93cdfdad20bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 328.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 256.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 247.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 68c | 235.74$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed Yes | 63c | 190.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 37c | 154.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 29c | 132.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 107$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 106.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 77c | 83.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 76.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 28c | 72.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 70.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 63c | 63.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 18c | 60.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…613cbacked Yes | 66c | 59.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 55.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 53.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 52.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 52.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 50.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 50.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 65c | 47.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 47.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed No | 31c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 51c | 39.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 26c | 39.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 38.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…9beabacked Yes | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…52eabacked Yes | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 34.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 33.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Yes | 50c | 31.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 71c | 27.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 61c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…b2aebacked No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.