Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4669cb3fcc57c36f90d3842e20769f89dbb3c69c01f0adc8d8876a073202781a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 396.65$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 79c | 284.63$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.12 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 274.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 249.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 213.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed Yes | 56c | 163.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 117.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 96.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…0fc5backed Yes | 27c | 92.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 25c | 83.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed No | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 70.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 69.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 29c | 68.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 68.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 76c | 65.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 23c | 63.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 37c | 49.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 49.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 47.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 46.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 29c | 37.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 78c | 37.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 69c | 28.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 23.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 53c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…368fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 77c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 16.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 15.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.