Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bcaa9026b3fe2d1e95c7ec8667873bfdbf7d6d8bab358462dc73905ed087dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3090…be73backed Yes | 33c | 3,320$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.56 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Yes | 34c | 1,022$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 67c | 931.86$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.51 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 785.4$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.04 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 8c | 678.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a7c6backed Yes | 5c | 631.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 493.57$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 23c | 472.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 449.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 5c | 367.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 304.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 67c | 303$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 67c | 165$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 150.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 35c | 143.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 71c | 141.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 71c | 141.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 68c | 119.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 28c | 118.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 25c | 114.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 65c | 111.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 67c | 91.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed No | 69c | 71.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 67c | 60.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 71c | 43.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c0…df7fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed No | 66c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…5703backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?No won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.