Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996da583d4c749bed1f7290568bdd1de236a812754421bf835bfc30010522a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 12,797$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.62 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 9c | 5,801$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.09 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 1c | 4,025$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 15c | 3,120$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.02 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed No | 17c | 1,571$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…801cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 13c | 1,484$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 60c | 1,017$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.92 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed No | 60c | 583.33$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 581.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 529.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 73c | 499.7$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 43c | 423.21$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 338.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 60c | 333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 26c | 309.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Yes | 75c | 296.57$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 20c | 293$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 18c | 270.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 213$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 60c | 181.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 78c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed No | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 30c | 142.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 112.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…f725backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 96.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…c457backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 66c | 88.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 24c | 87.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 593 | 42.5%252 W · 341 L | -28.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 24c | 83.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Yes | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 26c | 62.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 40c | 61.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…66cbbacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Yes | 42c | 53.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 41c | 52.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…30d5backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 58c | 48.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 29c | 48.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 64c | 47.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed No | 43c | 44.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed No | 36c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 45c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed No | 59c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Yes | 79c | 23.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…9447backed No | 58c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.