TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c441.05$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.888,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes34c396.41$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.081,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No13c355.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes33c248.74$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.8543139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c226.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.382,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No43c222.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes67c221.05$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3127037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9719648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes32c183.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7114119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c168.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.263,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes30c163.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7229748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No26c155.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3424736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes37c139.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.811926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes51c129.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6915843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c121.81$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.853,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes55c120.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.415,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No48c119.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c117.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.42,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No68c117.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0821268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c111.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…4e79backed Yes36c106.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.452441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb954…c00dbacked Yes34c88.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.483148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes35c84.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9314040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No65c79.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.552,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No56c71.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.022,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c70.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.944,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No77c64.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes33c60.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes61c55.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5620445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No66c52.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…ae31backed Yes30c52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.45918.6%11 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No67c49.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3221173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c48.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.967,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd39e…88e2backed Yes29c47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes33c45.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.295135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes33c44.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1480735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes33c44.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes42c40.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes34c39.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes68c39.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.661,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed Yes64c39.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2644659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c38.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes31c37.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1123436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c37.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c36.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.94,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes57c36.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.621,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No66c35.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes61c34.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.433268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes34c31.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.473644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a02…b863backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61d0…1c82backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.281070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.722,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No67c28.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No63c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No64c27.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.811,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c27.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.961,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No75c27.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3616968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes76c26.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No75c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked No46c24.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.356959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No67c24.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0311664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No68c21.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c20.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2286362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No65c20.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes51c20.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No69c19.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7917364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No64c19.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No79c18.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6314158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes55c18.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.211546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes64c17.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.171,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1bec…999cbacked Yes73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.321283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No68c14.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.