NBA · resolved market
76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c041d5e61522a2abc17881ded54eff8ceeb2fe589feccd7e1e17399d8efe09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,818$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…b3adbacked Over | 54c | 1,150$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 1,083$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…ad6cbacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…09c9backed Under | 43c | 350.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 228.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…35eabacked Under | 44c | 170$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…5356backed Under | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 39.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed Under | 46c | 35.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…1a5ebacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5this page
- 76ers vs. BullsBulls won
- 76ers vs. Bulls: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- 76ers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.