NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIA (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c0a67cc4e6caa3617423829063be70ca20a395287081548666b9d53f00d70d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WASof MIA, WAS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked MIA | 48c | 4,449$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed WAS | 52c | 2,904$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.06 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed WAS | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed MIA | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked MIA | 49c | 750$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed WAS | 51c | 490.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed WAS | 51c | 169.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed MIA | 46c | 90.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked WAS | 52c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed WAS | 54c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed MIA | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed WAS | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed MIA | 49c | 35.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked WAS | 54c | 30.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked MIA | 49c | 25.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed MIA | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked MIA | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIA (-3.5)this page
- Dolphins vs. CommandersCommanders won
- MIA vs. WAS: O/U 36.5Under won
- MIA vs. WAS: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: MIA (-2.5)WAS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.