NFL · resolved market
MIA vs. WAS: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb406b83892c361aef8b1d87f01605b7ca991800be4ce73af32d0f03f6d5e28a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 11,571$5,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,669.56 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 49c | 1,990$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 546.16$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.62 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 390.16$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.18 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 51c | 266$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 56c | 258.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.87 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 49c | 166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 44c | 136.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 117$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 49c | 115.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 110.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 109.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 44c | 108.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 52c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 81.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 52c | 73.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 44c | 65.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 54c | 53.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 39.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Over | 49c | 34.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 49c | 34.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…99b2backed Over | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 49c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 50c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MIA vs. WAS: O/U 36.5this page
- Dolphins vs. CommandersCommanders won
- MIA vs. WAS: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: MIA (-2.5)WAS won
- Spread: MIA (-3.5)WAS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.