Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2b73f77af9df07d55265947bb6eb80d3d12aa75f9845fae8758e0320764c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 78c | 1,284$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 34c | 1,175$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 78c | 873.07$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 553.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.47 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 529.54$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 520.49$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 425$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 420$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 286.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 285.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 279.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed Yes | 66c | 244.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 66c | 234$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 225.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 196.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 186.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 33c | 174.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 60c | 162$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 154.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 152.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 70c | 145.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 47c | 142.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 134.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 124.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 111.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 103.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 64c | 103.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 100.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 92.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 66c | 86.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 83.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 74c | 82.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 81.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 24c | 69.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 49c | 66.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 66.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 24c | 63.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 61.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 50c | 59.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 35c | 53.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked Yes | 46c | 50.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 63c | 50.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 65c | 49.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 61c | 48.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 48.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 64c | 47.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…8982backed Yes | 72c | 47.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 46.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 46.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 51c | 42.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 50c | 42.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 40.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 37c | 40.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…faf7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 63c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 49c | 38.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 37.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 35.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 58c | 34.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 34.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…e521backed No | 55c | 33.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 54c | 33.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 43c | 32.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 32.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 32.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 29.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 29.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.