Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa801274cd4ddafa40888f97221e5220f4b10534e5580e56ba76207fa7abc1d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 4c | 3,156$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 1c | 2,331$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 629.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 437.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 420$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 386.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…57f2backed Yes | 60c | 365.04$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 342.86$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 76c | 268.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 33c | 242.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 225.53$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 224.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 10c | 215.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 212.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 188.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 186.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 166.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 20c | 160.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 152.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 150.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 149.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 142.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 9c | 131.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 121.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 120.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 119.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 119.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 103.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 103.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 20c | 102.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 16c | 96.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 96.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 96.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 21c | 93.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 16c | 92.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 22c | 88.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 31c | 80.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…3550backed Yes | 64c | 78.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 27c | 73.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 67.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 66.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 65.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 62.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 59.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 75c | 58.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 54.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 48.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 47.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 46.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…791ebacked No | 59c | 45.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 45.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 43.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 43.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked Yes | 44c | 43.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 42.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 42.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…d0cfbacked Yes | 24c | 42.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 41.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 25c | 40.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 74c | 40.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 39.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b61…e426backed Yes | 27c | 38.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 43c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…5ba7backed No | 59c | 35.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 53c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed No | 59c | 32.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 58c | 30.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.