TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No79c512.83$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.078,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c398$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes39c385.29$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.294,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c382.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.631,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No73c349.15$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.271,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No43c325.11$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2684124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes23c271.08$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.522,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c234.17$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes24c215.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6614025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes80c213.96$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9634050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No36c209.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No72c200.48$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.641,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c187.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.674,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes26c181.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c175.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.924,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c170.42$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes17c162.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.492,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No75c149.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.211,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No19c144.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes40c119.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes26c113.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.510228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes61c112.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.211331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c111.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.533,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb144…2c8cbacked Yes18c111.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No75c100.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes26c100.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2522125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes38c99.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.471,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No74c94.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7084…7884backed No79c93.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.181040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c89.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes19c85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.833,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b6…94b8backed Yes20c84.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.746131.1%19 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes37c81.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c80.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No74c78.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.782,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c73.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.722,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes21c72.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.171,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No78c69.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5425946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No77c69.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0422350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes32c67.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4926344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes61c66.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.781,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes24c61.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.794156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes76c59.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3213134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes22c54.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2312539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes43c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5928649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3834934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4810636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No79c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.457558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes21c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.54235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes26c48.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0244536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No40c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No28c44.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3434067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes45c39.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c39.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes28c38.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.656854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes27c38.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2714954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked No78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.316354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No42c34.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5722344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes56c31.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.931,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c28.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c28.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No75c26.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked Yes50c26.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No73c24.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.021,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c24.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.582,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No67c22.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No68c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No74c21.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c21.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c20.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.453353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No76c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.443056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa39e…fa48backed No79c18.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c18.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No73c17.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe681…19f8backed No75c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.673464.7%22 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No69c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No65c15.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.952,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked No74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.