Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4bfab2ad8f8f9421c8006b525af0da2878d189806bef8d91cedb7a54fb1912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 783.58$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 428.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 25c | 281.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 215.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 210.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 165.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 154.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 152.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 134.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 76c | 133.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 129.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 23c | 120.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 79c | 102.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 100.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 22c | 95.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 32c | 92.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 87.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 78.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 20c | 64.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 56.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 51.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 78c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 80c | 30.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 79c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.