TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86c1…9615backed Yes2c913.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173713.5%5 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c759.88$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes50c602.68$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.514,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes40c430.22$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c417.85$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.851,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes46c336$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c285.09$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.354,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c243.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes26c242.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8337056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c168.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.481,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes47c165.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.581,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No43c159.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.561,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes6c158.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes68c147.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c137.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No44c131.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.371,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No37c131.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No60c127.76$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5123668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9598…3be8backed Yes8c126.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes51c120.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4411148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No57c104.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4725466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes35c101.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.881,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No49c100.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes45c100.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2825560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5068335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes45c99.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.984,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c96.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.791,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No32c96.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.875752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c88.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes65c87.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0611331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes22c86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.821,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes48c84.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2232738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes62c80.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes62c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.233,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes48c77.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.381,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c76.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No34c56.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3614745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked No54c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5516354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes54c50.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.613,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No45c44.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No74c42.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes49c42.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0334067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes37c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6919648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes60c39.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9130168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes46c38.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9714134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes40c36.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6816934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes47c35.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.861,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…1e89backed Yes51c35.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No59c34.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.35671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes45c33.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No42c33.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2984124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No75c30.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3866735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No60c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1edf…6be6backed Yes55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c26.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes66c25.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.593641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cf…76b3backed No54c24.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.174158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No53c22.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.825358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc902…3cd9backed Yes49c22.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+93.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes55c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes48c20.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.023327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No54c20.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No54c20.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.176648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.864960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb281…e048backed Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899f…c012backed Yes56c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked Yes56c17.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.024269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes64c17.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.