Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c42c83c14be2f0ce4fc0e30c1baf93167939f6ea584428672c36ebd1535ce19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 677.85$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 30c | 438.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 311.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 287.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 46c | 280.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 188$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 153.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 69c | 140.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 124.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 117.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 111.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 100.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 93.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 58c | 83.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 30c | 68.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 46c | 61.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 59.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 59.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 40c | 57.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 53.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 49.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 41c | 32.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 27.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.