Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb447f21b17b7b3bd83fdc7219d848ac54ca842232ee8dd265c5aac91c2a0bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 65c | 1,357$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.59 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,164$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 550.34$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 445.38$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 30c | 394.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 388.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 46c | 342.73$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 265.26$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 188$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 187.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 36c | 186.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 183.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 160$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 35c | 134.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 123.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 107$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 104.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 100.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 94.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 72.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 52c | 68.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 53.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 51.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…deefbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 49.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 59c | 46.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 40.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 48c | 33.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 31.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 31.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 31.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 48c | 30.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 52c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 26.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 48c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 21.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 19.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 72c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.