MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4592aef1bc62457107006dd8eaca7f8210d3c9cd0d6957a35424294446b93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x638f…fb41backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 35,480$20,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,901.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…20c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 34,880$14,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,649.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 21,418$13,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,165.45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 17,018$6,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,453.64 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 14,575$8,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,041.2 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 11,661$3,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,963.74 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 6,549$4,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.12 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 6,374$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.51 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 5,971$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 3,677$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.57 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 1,602$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.93 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,512$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 1,483$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.52 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 1,444$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.03 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 919.89$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.31 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 899$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 824.32$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 813.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 789$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…3873backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 557.78$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 535.49$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 448.49$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 409.88$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 187.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 185.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…9833backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 149.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 66.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 29.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f0…bb27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.