Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c48276f607c3edd54ff323d340c3c8ae7cf6a290e3cde67618bfa73afa14595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 30c | 548.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 4c | 390.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 6c | 355.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 309.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 286.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 271.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 227.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 10c | 179.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 154.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 132.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 124.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 112.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 95.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed No | 70c | 93.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 90.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 90.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 89.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 89.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 88.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 80.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 80.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 75.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 70c | 65.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 60.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 58.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 55.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 52.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 52.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 51.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 79c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…fa27backed Yes | 35c | 41.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 69c | 41.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 28c | 38.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 78c | 36.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 29.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 26.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 80c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.