Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d8ab337a6aa0086ae24a2c665a9f84ff33e912cc61a3f629fb863820824adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 75c | 1,573$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.53 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 2c | 717.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 51c | 543.03$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 303.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 299$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 294.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 280.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 47c | 226.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 17c | 221.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 218.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 170.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 161.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 154.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 144.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…ba17backed No | 62c | 143.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 138$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 137.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 133.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 129.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 120.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 120.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 32c | 109.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 20c | 103.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…a395backed No | 72c | 100.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 52c | 95.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 93.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 92.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 91.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 90.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 48c | 89.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 39c | 76.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 73.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 42c | 67.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 66.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 60.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 58.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 54.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 76c | 47.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 47.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 45.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 62c | 43.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 36c | 33.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 33.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 32.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 48c | 29.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 23.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed No | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 20.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 53c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…453fbacked Yes | 80c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 78c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.