Fifa International · resolved market
Will Benin win on 2025-12-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5cd7c3d5f87032044f4d433c461c8f8e6e6bc9421d56df77a801ab114c374a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 6c | 7,049$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.95 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 6c | 6,042$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.08 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,966$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 3c | 2,557$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes | 7c | 1,153$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 1c | 1,064$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,006$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 250 | 38.8%97 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…cb73backed Yes | 8c | 926.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 8c | 835.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 7c | 778.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 7c | 726.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 7c | 700.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…41dbbacked Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…b019backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…ab17backed Yes | 7c | 364.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 4c | 257$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…684bbacked Yes | 6c | 240.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 8c | 234.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…4396backed Yes | 9c | 217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…d799backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…1e0bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 9c | 149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 139.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benin win on 2025-12-30?this page
- Will Benin vs. Senegal end in a draw?No won
- Will Senegal win on 2025-12-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.